“The best way to predict the future is to invent it.” – Alan Kay
I possess no crystal ball. I claim no talent or expertise for forward thinking. I am, however, willing to share my admittedly unstructured, sometimes half-baked, and often free-wheeling thoughts, such as they are, on this topic. Where GA is headed should be of interest to all pilots.
A great deal of celebration, deservedly so, was made over the 100th anniversary of the Wright Brothers’ first flight. The progress of aviation over the first century was breathtaking. We went from flimsy, barely controllable wood-and-fabric structures hardly resembling the airplanes we know today, to sophisticated, highly-engineered aircraft and rockets capable of taking pilots and passengers considerable distances at great speeds and to outer space.
The future promises to be breathtaking as well.
There will continue to be changes to GA as it evolves and attempts to find a place in our society. It will certainly look and, necessarily, be different from what it is today. There are many variables that can affect GA’s growth or decline in the coming years. Some events, just as in the past, are entirely outside of our direct control, such as technological breakthroughs, population and demographics, macroeconomic factors, and political and legal trends and policies.
Similar to an aircraft moving through a mass of air which is itself moving, GA flows through time. Like most industries, GA’s growth is premised on predictability. We have very little of that. As the pace of our world continues to accelerate, we are along for the ride and without a detailed map.
What may tomorrow’s GA look like?
The FAA. Like death and taxes, the FAA will always be with us. A few pilots today can remember when FAA regulations consisted of pages and not volumes. Regulations, often written as a consequence of accidents or advances in technology, have made flying safer. The FAA will continue to regulate because that is what it does.
In the time that I have been flying, the FAA moved (or was forced by Congress) from being a dictatorial, all-powerful bureaucracy with a decidedly “top down” approach, to more of a “partner” (albeit the “majority owner” partner”) who is capable of sharing and advancing GA pilots’ desires to promote and protect pilots and aviation.
A good example of this is the FAA’s guidance for handling violations, issued in 2021, offering remedial training to pilots in place of punitive enforcement actions. A worthwhile program, it is a practical solution that meets the needs of both the FAA and GA pilots.
The FAA will continue to be understaffed. Continuing to outsource certain FAA functions to achieve cost savings and efficiencies would make sense so long as safety and quality control do not suffer. If done correctly by the FAA, it can work.
BasicMed is a crucial and much needed innovation and will continue to benefit pilots and GA. However, medical certifications continue to be a huge bottleneck in the FAA Aeromedical Branch that can needlessly prevent pilots from flying. Without recognition of significant problems, and a commitment by the FAA to make substantial improvements, pilots will continue to wait egregiously long periods of time to have their medical applications resolved.
The FAA has streamlined the process somewhat in the past, allowing (Aviation Medical Examiners) AMEs to make more determinations on their own without the necessity for involving Oklahoma City. However, this change alone cannot and will not fix the fundamental problem under the current system of too many cases and too few FAA medical personnel to timely review and make decisions. That is unacceptable. At some point the FAA must revamp the current medical review system.
The FAA will also need to improve and fully staff the ATC system. Included within these efforts, both technical and organizational, will be creating a more professional and more structured tower cab environment, bringing the same level of safeguards, such as a “sterile” operating environment, elimination of distractions, and full recording and retention of all communications (radio and inter-personal) that professional flight crews operating commercial aircraft have today.
The FAA should spend time and resources where necessary and as appropriate. However, it should also delegate or outsource where required to enhance efficiencies, upgrade capabilities, and to resolve backlogs.
A user-fee system for GA will be on the table again. I am hopeful it will be soundly beaten back – again!
Innovation/Technology/Aircraft. Avionics will continue to improve at a rapid pace. Steam gauges and vacuum systems have been going away for some time. That will continue. Glass panels, autopilots, and do-it-all engine monitors will be found in the majority of GA aircraft over time. Just as occurred with the mandate of a standard six-pack configuration of flight instruments, in the future there will be more standardization of GPS architecture and buttonology. Same with autopilot features and controls.
“Auto-land” technology is becoming available slowly to GA and will increase in use, coming first to light-jets, turbines, and twins, then to single-engine GA aircraft.
Materials for airframes for GA aircraft will continue to evolve and improve, with substantial emphasis on composites and plastics. Shipments of new GA aircraft will increase only marginally at best so long as the large fleet of legacy aircraft remains on the market. There are too few new GA aircraft sold each year to allow any economies of scale that could lower prices. Insurance rates will remain high, with even greater emphasis on recurrent training and hours logged. As new GA aircraft continue to increase in price, the value of used GA aircraft will remain stable or increase, all other factors being equal.
Legacy light-twin aircraft will continue to fall out of favor with GA pilots. Most new twins today are delivered to flight schools for use as trainers for muti-engine students. GA pilots will continue to prefer high-performance piston or turbine singles, recognizing the limitations of older twins, including high fuel burns, high maintenance costs, high insurance costs, less parts availability, and a diminished resale market.
Gasoline engines used in aviation will continue to improve, with the likelihood of low lead gasoline being completely phased out by 2030, and one or more suitable replacement fuels being readily available on the market.
Simulators will continue to see increased use for primary, instrument, and recurrent flight training. The airlines have long known the value of simulators in training for emergencies and upset events, and they recognize the time and money that can be saved over training in real aircraft. These advantages are becoming more available to GA pilots. The results will be better training and safer flights.
Desktop simulators and virtual reality headsets will continue their growth. Computing power and artificial intelligence (AI) -enabled devices will provide astounding realism, life-like training, and entertainment for both pilots and the general public.
Pilots. I trust there will always be pilots. However, there will be fewer GA pilots. AOPA and EAA recognized this situation years ago and made active recruiting of new pilots a priority. Look around at an EAA Chapter meeting or in any FBO lobby on a VFR day. Fewer GA pilots and many have gray hair. The GA pilot population is aging and is not being replaced with the same numbers. Younger pilots are building time, most with sights on airline or corporate careers. There may be about the same number of pilots in the U.S. over time, but a significant percentage of them will be professionals and not GA, eventually flipping the current ratio.
It is possible there will be two distinct groups of pilots in the future – those who hand-fly aircraft, and those who manage autopilots. The airline industry is already moving toward the latter. A pilot who hand-flys a taildragger will become exceedingly rare. Sort of like that uncle who occasionally takes his 1957 Chevrolet Bel Air with the “three on the tree” manual transmission out for a drive through the park on a nice day. People will admire the car but have no clue how to operate it.
The number of female pilots (approximately 10 percent of the pilot population today) and minority pilots (less than 5 percent) will continue to increase. We would all like to see that. For many years, there were barriers to entry (by design or by neglect), resulting in a less-than-welcoming environment that only a few females and minorities ventured into or were allowed to enter. The military, the airlines, and GA are changing that and will continue to do so.
What remains constant, however, is deliberately choosing to become a pilot. It is a demanding lifestyle choice for anyone with a young family, a financial and personal challenge, and a calling. Not everyone, male or female, white or minority, has the interest, time, talent, money, or what it takes to succeed.
The cost of flying has always been relatively high (even after adjusting for inflation, 25 – 30% higher today) and a difficult impediment to attracting larger numbers of GA pilots. Without scholarships, low-cost loans, or other programs to generate demand, defray costs, and provide consistent encouragement, the ability to attract and retain student pilots will continue to be impaired.
We will regret a decline in the GA pilot population. GA pilots are smart, adventurous, successful, generous, and goal oriented. GA pilots benefit aviation, their local airports and communities, and our national interests. We represent a skilled resource that should be both appreciated and cultivated – now and in the future.
There is a thread that runs through aviation history and ties each of us together that goes back to 1903. It is important to recognize that, as pilots, we have a personal obligation to maintain and grow GA. It will be a difficult task. Unlike the end of World War II (and to a lesser extent Korea and Vietnam) when there were huge numbers of returning veterans to fill flight schools and buy GA airplanes, no such demographic anomaly looms on tomorrow’s horizon that will replenish the GA pilot pipeline. We will have to recruit future pilots one at a time, often one-on-one. Not an easy task.
Fuel/Power. 2030 is slated to bring an end to leaded aviation gasoline. I am hopeful that safe and relatively inexpensive unleaded substitutes will be readily available for all GA aircraft. If not, it will present a formidable obstacle to maintaining GA’s current numbers of pilots and aircraft. Also, without an unleaded gasoline solution, environmentalists will write more letters, re-double their efforts, and undoubtedly increase the protest levels in local communities to shut down airports and prevent GA flying.
Diesel engines will start to make inroads into the GA market, given the wide availability of Jet A, lighter weight, and better reliability. The wild card for diesel engines continues to be price, as spreading costs for new diesel engines over relatively few aircraft (new and retrofits) will result in high prices that will not be easily accepted in the GA market.
Currently, batteries cannot compete with fossil fuels like gasoline or diesel from an energy density perspective. In the near future, battery-powered aircraft will remain on the periphery of the GA market. There are still difficult technical issues of weight, capacity, and range that need practical, cost-effective solutions. These issues, over time, may be improved or solved, and offer opportunities to power or re-power traditional GA aircraft, but significant trade-offs in cost or performance will not be acceptable to GA pilots. Also, batteries require huge quantities of rare metals (nickel, manganese, cobalt, lithium, etc.) that, depending on world-wide demand and supply for use in other products, may simply not be available for GA batteries.
Drones. My apologies to those committed dreamers who have invested in and worked diligently to design and build something called a “roadable” aircraft or “flying” car. From the late 1940s on, see, e.g., the “Aerocar,” the “Terrafugia,” and today’s “Switchblade,” the goal was to introduce to the general public a practical vehicle that could serve as both airplane and car. Technical compromises were always inherent in the designs, resulting in a product that often fell short of performance targets both in the air and on the ground.
A vehicle holding that alluring dual potential actually does exist today – it is called a “drone.” And, eventually, it may present the unbelievable capability to re-order our lives.
Drone technology is advancing at a rapid pace. Programmable, autonomous drones are used routinely today for crop spraying, aerial photography, police and intelligence work, and on the battlefield. As you may have noticed at EAA AirVenture Oshkosh and elsewhere, large swarms of drones are now capable of spectacular flying formations creating words, pictures, and other displays across a vast swath of the sky. They are already “quietly” displacing traditional fireworks at public events. As “quadcopters” (or variations thereof) become larger and more capable, drone technology promises to revolutionize the package delivery, local transportation, and other sectors of our economy – and the rest of the world’s economies as well.
This is not our near future, but it is not our distant future either. Passenger-carrying drone technology is visible on the horizon, see, e.g., Joby Aviation, Archer Aviation, Eve Air Mobility, Wisk Aero, and EHang Holdings, among others.
Passenger-carrying drones may become a large part of the future of GA. “Drone taxis” or “flying taxis,” also known as electric Vertical Take-off and Landing (“eVTOL”) vehicles, which exist as prototypes and beta-test models today, eventually will comprise a new generation of Autonomous Aerial Vehicles (“AAVs”) designed for and capable of transporting cargo and/or people – first over short distances, later over longer routes.
They may use existing airports, helipads, tall buildings in urban centers, or distribution centers in the beginning and, as the technology matures, they eventually may be hangared in our own garages where our cars used to be. The benefits are immense, and will fundamentally transform our society, including reducing the number of automobiles and traffic congestion, enhancing air quality, and introducing, on several orders of magnitude, many more people to flying than GA does today.
Drones designed with autonomous capabilities will allow passengers to simply program into the vehicle the desired or prescribed routes, waypoints, altitudes, and speeds, thereby freeing the passengers’ attention for other pursuits in flight (Can anyone say, “The Jetsons?”). Manual controls could still be included to allow for a pilot or a passenger/operator to intervene if there is a system failure or other emergency.
As with any new technology, acceptance may be slow at first. Regulatory approvals and oversight, and ensuring safety for passengers and those on the ground, are paramount. Technical issues such as battery weight, capacity, performance, reliability, noise reduction, electric power grids capable of sustaining the growing demand, and integration into the existing airspace system, will all need to be resolved prior to wide acceptance by the public. Once these hurdles are overcome (and I am not predicting when that will occur), it will be a game-changer in how we, as a society, move goods and people from Point A to Point B on a daily basis.
As I re-read through my predictions, I see an inconsistency. If battery technology remains “on the periphery” of powering traditional aircraft, how can it also become a “game-changer” for passenger-carrying drones?
As a pilot, and as much as I hesitate to recognize it, the answer is that over a longer period of time as any new technology emerges and ascends, the old technology it replaces must necessarily decline and, possibly, disappear. Horse-drawn wagons became scarce after the introduction of the automobile. Piston and jet aircraft displaced most passenger trains. When technical issues are solved, and as passenger-carrying drones become more widespread, capable, and accepted, there will be less real need for traditional GA aircraft. I am not saying it is inevitable, but it is certainly much more than a mere possibility or idle conjecture.
I am hopeful that the GA we know and love today can continue to co-exist with the “new” GA of tomorrow. Frankly, I am not sure how this is going to work out.
Where is that crystal ball when we need it?
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